供过于求 Oil glut set to persist next year（中英双语
oil output from Opec and a slowdown in world economic growth means the
crude oil glut will persist through next year, the world’s leading
energy forecaster said on Tuesday.
供过于求 Oil glut set to persist next year
The International Energy Agency said it expected a “marked slowdown” in
oil demand growth as the stimulus from lower prices faded and as
economic activity weakened in countries dependent on commodity revenues.
“Oil at $50 a barrel is a powerful driver in rebalancing the global oil
market,” the IEA said in its closely watched monthly report. “But a
projected marked slowdown in demand growth next year and the anticipated
arrival of additional Iranian barrels...愠爀攀 likely to keep the market
oversupplied through 2016.”
The collapse in oil prices has supported the strongest oil demand growth
in almost a decade, with low prices helping boost demand by 1.8m barrels
a day to 94.5m b/d. Gasoline demand has been particularly strong,
suggesting motorists have been encouraged to drive more by lower prices.
But the IEA forecasts that effect will fade, with demand growth set to
slow to 1.2m b/d next year.
The IEA, which uses the International Monetary Fund’s growth assumptions
for its oil demand estimates, said the global economic outlook was “more
pessimistic”. The fund said earlier this month the world economy would
grow for 2015 at its slowest pace since the global financial crisis.
Non-Opec supply slipped 180,000 b/d to 58.3m b/d in September as
spending cuts of more than 20 per cent by the world’s biggest energy
companies had an impact. Production is expected to average at this level
for 2015, before dropping a further 500,000 b/d next year.
US year-over-year gains have eased to just 300,000 b/d from 1.6m b/d in
Non-Opec supplies nevertheless exceeded expectations, with Brazil and
Russia recording record output levels during August and September.
Opec crude supply — led by record Iraqi output, which offset declines
from Saudi Arabia — rose 90,000 b/d in September to 31.7m b/d. Year to
date the group has pumped 31.2m b/d, 1m b/d higher than the same period
a year ago, before the cartel decided to keep the taps open to win back
customers rather than defend prices.