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人民币 篮将推动货币格局“再平衡” (中英 语)

青岛希 尔翻译公司(www..cn)整理 布2015-12-10

希尼尔 译公司(www..cn)2015年12月10日了解 :The announcement that the renminbi meets the International Monetary Fund’s criteria as a “freely usable” currency will have come as no surprise to those who have followed China’s unprecedented steps to open up its capital markets. 人民币 到国际货币基金组织(IMF)“可自 使用”货币的标准,这一宣言并不会让那些一直关注中国开放资本市场的空前举措的人感到惊讶。

It means a technical hurdle on the renminbi’s ascent as a global currency has been cleared away and makes it near certain that the IMF executive board will include the Chinese currency into its Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket of currencies, effective from October 1 next year. 这意味 ,人民币崛起为一种全球性货币的技术障碍已经被扫除,IMF执行董 会将把人民币纳入特别提款权(SDR)货币篮 ,明年10月1日起正 生效。

A monumental milestone for the renminbi, this event would trigger significant but gradual inflows of funds into the currency, changing the global currency landscape forever, as central banks, sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) and multilateral institutions recalibrate their balance sheets. 这对人 币来说是一个重大里程碑,随着各国央行、主权财富基金(SWF)和多边 构重新调整各自的资产负债表,这将促使总额庞大资金逐步流入人民币,永久改变全球货币格局。

Many will not wait until next year before taking action. Indeed as many as 70 central banks have already invested part of their reserves into renminbi, either inside China or offshore. 很多机 不会等到明年才采取行动。事实上,多达70家央行 经把一部分储备投资于人民币,这些资产或是在中国境内,或是在离岸市场。

The reforms made by China to qualify for SDR inclusion have been so radical that — to public sector investors — the renminbi has become fully convertible with no restrictions on access or size of investment in the China interbank bond market, something that has gone largely unnoticed. 为了取 被纳入SDR的资格 中国进行的改革十分彻底,以至于对公共部门投资者而言,人民币已经变得完全可兑换,在中国银行间债券市场没有准入或投资规模的限制,这件事情 在很大程度上被人们忽视了。

Six out of the world’s 10 largest central banks have so far refrained from investing in the Chinese interbank bond market. However, because of China’s recent reforms, these and many other public sector investors are now reviewing their stance. 世界10家最大 行中的6家迄今 曾投资中国银行间债券市场。然而,由于中国近期推行的改革,这些央行和其他许多公共部门投资者正在重新考虑它们的立场。

Eventually, we should expect to see the renminbi reach a double-digit share of global reserves — inflows in the order of $800bn to more than $1tn. Even a conservative estimate of a reallocation of about 1 per cent of global reserves each year would mean about $80bn inflows annually — no mean sum. 最终, 们应该有望看到人民币 全球储备中的比例达到两位数,资金流入介于8000亿至逾1万亿美 。即使进行保守估计,假设每年大约有1%的全球 备重新分配,那也意味着每年约800亿美元 资金流入——这不是一个小数目。

Added to the moves by central banks, will be those by SWFs. Norway’s SWF alone is likely to invest over $40bn according to their GDP weighted benchmark. 央行以 ,采取行动的还将包括主权财富基金。仅挪威主权财富基金就可能根据其国内生产总值(GDP)加权基 ,对人民币投资逾400亿美元

The implementation of the renminbi’s inclusion in the SDR basket 10 months from now is also set to inevitably trigger a significant rebalancing or hedging demand for the Chinese currency, though this, too, is likely to occur gradually. 10个月后 人民币加入SDR将正式 效,这也将不可避免地带来对人民币的可观再平衡或对冲需求,尽管这同样可能是渐进的。

Contrary to common perceptions — given that the aggregate SDR assets of the central banks in the IMF member states (around $280bn) have an equal amount of SDR liabilities — the renminbi’s addition to the SDR basket would not actually trigger a system-wide hedging demand, though some countries that are long or short on SDR may hedge their positions. 和普遍 法相左——考虑到IMF成员国 行的总SDR资产( 为2800亿美元 伴随着相同数额的总SDR负债— 人民币被纳入SDR货币篮 并不会引发系统性的对冲需求,尽管有些对SDR做多或 空的国家或许要对其持有头寸进行对冲。

Instead, by far the most significant direct effect from the RMB’s inclusion on currency flows would come from multilateral institutions. The IMF’s own investment account and investment by its Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust would need to be rebalanced to include the renminbi. 相反, 民币“入篮”对货币流动最显著的直接影响将来自于多边机构。IMF自身的 资账户,及其减贫和发展信托(PRGT)的投资 都需要进行再平衡以纳入人民币。

Likewise, institutions such as the Bank of International Settlements, the African Development Bank, the Islamic Development Bank, the Arab Monetary Fund and the International Fund for Agricultural Development have SDR-denominated balance sheets, which would need to be rebalanced. 同样的 国际清算银行(BIS)、非洲 发银行(African Development Bank)、伊斯 开发银行(Islamic Development Bank)、阿拉 货币基金组织(Arab Monetary Fund)、国际 业发展基金(International Fund for Agricultural Development)等拥有 SDR计价的 产负债表的组织,都需要进行再平衡。

The World Bank and Asian Development Bank would also be affected as some of their facilities for the world’s poorest countries are denominated in SDR. The combined size of these multilateral institutions’ SDR denominated balance sheets is around $600bn, so the resulting renminbi flows could be more than $80bn assuming existing SDR weighting methodology. 世界银 (World Bank)和亚洲 发银行(ADB)也会受 影响,因为它们为世界最贫困国家提供的一些安排以SDR计价。 些多边组织以SDR计价的 产负债表总规模大约为6000亿美元 因此如果采用现有的SDR权重计 方法,由此带来的人民币流动将超过800亿美元

The renminbi’s weight in the SDR basket has been the only big issue left for the IMF executive board to decide. Recent suggestions by some stakeholders that using existing methodology could leave the renminbi with too big a share of the basket (at around 14 per cent, far greater than that of the pound and the yen) will hopefully have been ignored the Board. 人民币 SDR货币篮 中的权重是IMF执行董 会需要决定的最后一个重大问题(IMF最新宣 的人民币权重是10.92%——译注)。一些股东最近提出,如果使用现有算法,人民币 SDR货币篮 中的权重可能会过大(大约为14%,远超 镑和日元),但IMF董事会 可能会忽略这样的说法。

While the current weighting formula may not be ideal, the renminbi and the markets are fully ready to handle the direct implications of the SDR inclusion with the existing weighting methodology. 尽管目 的权重计算公式或许不理想,但人民币和市场都已经完全准备好应对人民币以目前的权重算法加入SDR篮子的 接影响。

The writer is managing director and head of central banks and sovereign wealth funds at Standard Chartered Bank. He previously worked for the IMF and the central banks of New Zealand and Finland. 本文作 是渣打银行(Standard Chartered)央行和 权财富基金业务主管和董事总经理,曾任职于国际货币基金组织、新西兰央行和芬兰央行

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