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  分析:中国 经济再平衡进入关键期(中英双语)

青岛希尼尔 翻译咨询有限公司(www.)整理发布   2015-10-20

  

青岛希尼尔翻译公司( www.)2015年10月20日了解到:中国昨日 发布的强于预期的增长数据将使习近平本周访英期间不致难堪。它也似乎表明中国的经济再平衡基本上仍处在正轨上——这种看法最近几个月受到一些分析师的挑战。Growth data buoy China at ‘pivotal moment’ in economic rebalancing China’s stronger than expected growth figure announced yesterday will save

Xi Jinping’s blushes as he tours the UK this week. It also suggests the country’s economic rebalancing is largely on track — a view that has been challenged by some analysts over recent months. 国内生产总 值(GDP)在第三季度 同比增长了6.9%,低于第一 和第二季度的7%,但仍在官 方“7%左右”全年 目标的范围内。

Gross domestic product grew 6.9 per cent in the third quarter, down from 更重要的是 ,经济增长的构成继续转向政策制定者所希望的方向:向消费和服务转移,减轻对制造业和投资的依赖。

7 per cent in the first and second but still within range of the official full-year target of “around 7 per cent”. “中国的再 平衡正处于一个关键时刻。如果失败,全球经济……可能被推入一场重大低迷,”IG分析师安格 斯?尼科尔森(Angus Nicholson)在一份发给 客户的简报中写道。

More importantly, the composition of growth continued to shift in the desired direction of policymakers: towards consumption and services and away from manufacturing and investment. 消费占前三 季度增长的58%,即4个百分点。 投资(包括新住宅和工厂建设)只贡献了42%,即3个百分点。 今年在总产出中占比升至50%上方的服务 业,9月份增长8.6%,远远超过 仍在苦撑的工业部门5.8%的增幅。

“Chinese rebalancing is at a pivotal moment. Should it fail the global economy?.?.?.?could be pushed into a major downturn,” Angus Nicholson, analyst at IG, write in a note to clients. 分析师们表 示,在劳动力市场仍然紧张的背景下,收入不断上涨正在推动消费。

Consumption accounted for 58 per cent of that growth, or 4 percentage points. Investment, which includes construction of new houses and factories, contributed only 43 per cent, or 3 percentage points. Services, whose share of overall output passed 50 per cent this year, grew 8.6 per cent, well ahead of the 5.8 per cent expansion in the struggling industrial sector. “消费占GDP的比重越来 越大,因为老百姓在国民收入中的占比越来越高了,”北京大学中国经济研究中心教授黄益平昨日对中国媒体表示。黄益平认为,电信、教育、旅游、老年护理和金融服务很可能是从消费上升受益最多的行业。

Analysts say rising incomes amid a still-tight labour market are fuelling consumption.

“The consumption share of GDP is bigger and bigger because ordinary people’s share of national income is higher and higher,” Huang Yiping, professor at Peking University’s China Center for Economic Research, told local media yesterday. Mr Huang sees telecommunications, education, travel, elderly care and financial services as sectors likely to benefit most from increasing consumption. 然而,对于 那些怀疑中国官方GDP数据的分析 师,最新数据只是加深了他们的狐疑。鉴于第二季度股市大幅下跌,他们怀疑服务业是不是可能保持如此强劲。金融服务是今年早些时候服务业增长的最大贡献因素。

Yet for analysts sceptical of China’s official GDP data, the latest figures compound that suspicion. They doubt that services could have remained so strong given the steep declines in the stock market in the second quarter. Financial services were the biggest contributor to services growth earlier in the year. “服务行业 怎么会在第三季度保持强劲增长有点令人费解,因为上半年强劲的服务业增长主要是由金融业驱动的,”摩根大通(JPMorgan)首席中国经 济学家朱海斌写道。

“It is somewhat puzzling how the service sector maintained strong growth in the third quarter, given that the strong service sector growth in the first half was mainly driven by the financial sector,” wrote Zhu Haibin, chief China economist at JPMorgan. “近期股市 回调应该已导致服务业减速。”

“The recent stock market correction should have led to service sector deceleration.”

The statistics bureau is expected to provide a more detailed breakdown of service sector growth later this week. Julia Wang, greater China economist at HSBC, notes that the recovery of property sales during the third quarter probably drove growth in related services like real estate agents. 预计中国国 家统计局将在本周稍后详细介绍服务业各个分类的增长情况。汇丰(HSBC)大中华区经 济学家王然(Julia Wang)指出,第三 季度房地产销售复苏,很可能带动了房地产经纪等相关服务的增长。

If services did not grow as fast as official data claim, that implies the slowdown in manufacturing hit the overall economy faster than the mild slowdown in the headline figure — to 6.9 per cent from 7 per cent in the first half and 如果服务业 增长没有官方数据所称的那么快,那将意味着制造业放缓对整体经济的打击,比整体数据(从去年的7.3%和今年上半 年的7%降至6.9%)所呈现的 轻度放缓局面更加严重。

7.3 per cent in 2014 — indicates. 毫无疑问, 中国经济的传统支柱正在苦苦挣扎。9月份工业产 出增长仅达到5.8%,令人失望 ,只是略高于3月份触及的 5.7%的六年低点 。

There is no question that the traditional mainstays of China’s economy are struggling. Factory output grew at a disappointing 5.8 per cent in September, barely above the six-year low of 5.7 per cent touched in March. 固定资产投 资(包括住房建设、扩大工厂产能和基础设施)今年1至9月增长10.3%,这是自2000年以来最慢 的步伐。

Fixed-asset investment, which includes construction of housing, expansion of factory capacity and infrastructure, grew at 10.3 per cent in the year to September, the slowest pace since 2000. 即使服务业 增长速度真有官方数据所表明的那么快,对于那些依赖中国对石油、铁矿石和基础金属需求的大宗商品出口国,也算不上什么安慰。大宗商品行业要想得到解脱,如今只能寄望于进一步的刺激措施。

Even if services are growing as fast as official data suggest, that is cold comfort to commodity exporters who rely on Chinese demand for oil, iron ore and base metals. Relief for those sectors now depends on further stimulus measures. 刺激政策已 经在酝酿中。银行对实体经济的放贷已在9月大幅加速 ,同时经济学家们预计中国央行将在年底前再次降息。他们还预计央行将降低银行存款准备金率,从而释放出更多资金让商业银行放贷。

Stimulus policies are already in the pipeline. Bank lending to the real economy accelerated sharply in September, and economists forecast another interest rate cut before the end of the year. They also expect the central bank to reduce the share of deposits that banks must hold in reserve at the central bank, which frees up more funds for lending. 中国掌握实 权的国家规划机构也加大了基础设施支出,以弥补房地产和厂房设备投资的放缓。

China’s powerful state planning agency has also ramped up spending on infrastructure to cushion the slowdown in investment in property and factory plant and equipment, “政策制定 者们正在发出信号表明,他们对于守住7%的增长目标 是认真的,”麦格理证券(Macquarie Securities)中国经济学 家胡伟俊(Larry Hu)表示。

“Policymakers are signalling that they are serious about defending 7 per cent growth target,” wrote Larry Hu, China economist at Macquarie Securities.


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